Laura Gerhard
Vice President
OVERVIEW
May shipments of 226.1 million pounds came in at industry expectations. At 16% higher than last year, this is the second strongest May on record. Domestic shipments recorded a monthly high for the second time this year at 65.6 million pounds, which is 1% higher than last month and 19% higher than last year. Export shipments were 160.4 million pounds, down 9% versus last month but up 14% on last year. With two months left to go in the crop year, total shipments continue to improve over last year’s pace and are now 5.3% ahead for the season. At the current pace, shipments are well on track to drive the carryout below 500 million pounds.
SHIPMENTS
India: India was a notable standout with another impressive performance of 32 million pounds. This is up 64% on last year with year-to-date shipments improving to 21%. Market activity has remained robust as buyers actively cover positions for both current and new crops. The onset of the festival season in July typically brings increased consumption. Price is expected to firm as buyers need to purchase from the current crop to guarantee timely shipments and availability for the upcoming Diwali holiday.
China/Hong Kong/Vietnam: Shipments to the region totaled 9.1 million pounds, up 6% to last year. Year-to-date shipments are 12% behind last season. Consumption continues to face challenges but is expected to increase with the upcoming Mid-Autumn festival in September. Buying activity for new crop shipments has been quite active following the release of the Subjective Estimate. Local inventories are minimal, and buyers are eager for early shipment of their new crop purchases. This is positive for demand going forward into the new crop season.
Europe: Shipments to the region totaled 48.2 million pounds, a 15% decrease over last year with year-to-date shipments now 3.4% ahead of last season. Market activity has surged in recent weeks, with buyers rushing to secure positions necessary to maintain pipeline stocks for the remainder of the crop year. Demand remains strong as efforts continue to secure adequate supplies, especially with the market starting to focus on new crop purchases.
Middle East: This region continues to be a bright spot with shipments of 30.8 million pounds. This is up 136% on last year with year-to-date sales 11.4% ahead of last season. Demand remains strong due to favorable pricing. Local inventories remain limited as products are being promptly directed to the market upon arrival. Consumption is anticipated to endure, especially with an approaching festival in June.
DOMESTIC
May shipments reached 65.6 million pounds, the strongest monthly performance all year, up 19.5% over the prior year. Year-to-date domestic shipments now stand at 613 million pounds, which is 2.3% ahead of last year. As we enter the home stretch, we continue to see momentum building and anticipate a strong finish for the single largest market for almonds.
COMMITMENTS
Total commitments stand at 460.8 million pounds, a 5% decrease compared to last year. New sales for current crop are up 18% to last year at 134.2 million pounds. The transition to new crop is getting tight as evidenced by limited offers and significant reduction in uncommitted inventory position, down 37% to last year. Assuming a 2.44-billion-pound crop, shipments and commitments represent 88% of total supply versus 80% last year. Shipments are maintaining a pace that positions the industry to achieve a carryout below 500 million pounds. This puts the industry in a more manageable position given a larger expected 2024 crop and should promote price stability going forward.
The May position report provides the first look at commitments for the 2024 crop year. Total commitments are off to a fast start at 173.1 million pounds, which is a 204% increase over last year. Domestic commitments are strong at 50.4 million pounds, up 47% over last year, while export commitments are driving much of the demand growth at 173.1 million pounds and up 528% on the year.
CROP
Crop development remains at the forefront of discussions with quality concerns being of particular interest. The industry now awaits the Objective Estimate is scheduled to be released July 10.
| Market Perspective
The robust May position report is driving positive momentum, delivering good news across the board. Shipments met expectations and exceeded the volume needed to reduce carryout to manageable levels not seen in the past three years. Both current and new crop sales showed year-over-year increases. Buyers were active, covering their needs for the rest of the crop year. As anticipated, new crop sales started strong, with buyers eager to secure varieties and sizes that were scarce this year. Prices firmed throughout the month as current crop supplies became harder to find, and buyers demanded early shipment of new crop supplies. As a result, prices are expected to remain supported through harvest. |
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