Laura Gerhard
Vice President

OVERVIEW

Shipments for August exceeded industry expectations at 212 million pounds. This was up 13.6% to last month and 7.1% off last year’s record shipment. This was the industry’s second largest shipment number for the month of August in history. Domestic shipments were 61.4 million pounds, up 8.6% to last month but down 6.2% to last year. Export shipments were 150.1 million pounds, up 15.7% to last month and 7.5% off compared to last year. Given the slow start to the 2023 harvest, the August shipment number primarily represented crop year 2022 sales as very limited 2023 crop volume was available for shipment.

SHIPMENTS

India: Shipments to India remained flat for the month at 22.5 million pounds, mainly reflecting the 2022 crop availability due to a delayed start to the 2023 harvest. The Indian market was active in early August to compensate for lighter summer shipments. With many August shipments postponed to September due to the delayed harvest, we anticipate strong September shipments. California’s quality concerns with initial crop receipts led to slower new sales and firmer prices in recent weeks.

China/Hong Kong/Vietnam: Shipments to the region were 8.5 million pounds for the month which is down 24.5% to last year. A slow start was expected given the delayed California almond harvest as well as sufficient inventories in China to cover demand for the upcoming Mid-Autumn festival. Demand is expected to pick up in the coming weeks with buyers needing to get supplies moving to ensure on-time arrival for Chinese New Year.

Europe: The European markets saw an increase in shipments for August, up 2% to last year, and a new record for the month of August. The European market has seen relatively stable 2022 and 2023 crop standard prices and continue to buy hand-to-mouth. Most European buyers are looking for purchases in Q1 of 2024, with much of their short-term demand already covered. The European market, much like the US market, continues to struggle with weaker consumer demand and higher than necessary almond prices at retail.

Middle East: The Middle East markets saw a 32% drop in shipments versus a year ago. Even with that decline, the Middle East saw their 2^nd strongest August shipments in history with last year being such a strong outlier.  As the market begins to move out of the warmer summer months with local supplies more in balance, look for demand to return to the region in the coming months.

Domestic: August shipments for the domestic market were off 6.2 % from prior year, and the lowest August figure since crop year 2016. Inflation impacts on food pricing has dampened consumer buying within the retail segment as consumers focus on staples and frequency type items. As supply chains and inflation outlook are beginning to stabilize, the US Market has ample opportunity to ramp up shipments in the coming months. Domestic commitments for crop year 2023 lag prior year by 17%, with many customers still buying for the short term, and continuing to work through long contracts.

 

COMMITMENTS

Total commitments were 621.9 million pounds, up 1.3% to last year. Uncommitted inventory starts the year at 35 million pounds, down 86.1% to last year and primarily a result of low receipts. New sales for the month were 256 million pounds, which is 31% higher than last year and reflective of strong activity for the month. A good portion of this was comprised of export sales.

The 2% Loss and Exempt was revised down from last position report pushing the carryout volume to just over 800 million pounds. California starts the crop year at 24.9% sold and shipped against total supply, flat to last season.

CROP

August crop receipts were just over 70 million pounds, 73.5% less than the same time last year. This is reflective of the later harvest timing, which is approximately 3 weeks behind last season. Harvest has since picked up throughout much of the valley.

Many in the industry are concerned about the quality of the 2023 crop. Rainfall hit the Southern growing region of the valley just as harvest got underway, causing concern for mold and shell stain. Insect damage is prevalent across the entire valley resulting from the wet weather experienced last winter which prevented growers from getting out into the orchard to perform sanitation procedures. These quality issues have the potential of reducing the supply of higher quality inshell and kernels. The initial deliveries of almonds tend to be lower quality. With a small portion of the crop delivered to date, it is yet to be seen if these quality issues will persist or improve over time. With the 2023 crop forecasted at 2.6 billion pounds, the total supply for the upcoming season is essentially unchanged compared to last year. Harvest is finally underway and is approximately two weeks later than last year.

Market Perspective The August position report begins the 2023 season on a positive note with shipments larger than many expected. Many markets were active over the last month as attractive price levels persisted up to harvest. Price has since firmed over quality concerns of the initial deliveries of the 2023 crop causing packers to take a more conservative approach until more of the crop is received and reviewed. The focus of the industry going forward will be on monitoring the ongoing harvest with a particular eye on quality. The outlook for the 2023 crop will become clearer over the coming weeks as receipts are evaluated for quality, size, and supply potential.

To view Blue Diamond’s Market Updates and Bloom Reports Online Click Here

To view the entire detailed Position Report from the Almond Board of California Click Here

 

 

Laura Gerhard
Vice President

OVERVIEW

Shipments for the month of July exceeded industry expectations at 186.7 million pounds. This was even to last month and 10% higher to last year. Domestic shipments registered 56.5 million pounds, down 7% to last month and 1% to last year. Exports were 130.1 million pounds, which is up 3.5% to last month and 16% to last year. The July position report’s stronger-than-expected shipments provided for a positive finish to the season holding carryout below 800 million pounds.

In total, the 2022 crop year closes out with shipments of 2.56 billion pounds which is down 2.6% to last crop year. Domestic shipments finished at 716.4 million pounds, down 6% to last year and export shipments finished at 1.85 billion pounds, down 1% to last year

SHIPMENTS

India: The Indian market finished the 2022 crop season down 6% compared to the prior year. Shipments for the month of July were up 85% versus last year. Following the objective estimate purchasing activity from 2022 crop and 2023 increased as the market looks to cover early season demand. With a later new crop harvest and an early November Diwali the Indian market is likely to see strong August and September shipments. 

China/Hong Kong/Vietnam: July shipments were recorded at 7.4 million pounds, down 30% compared to last year. Total shipments for the crop year concluded at 170.5 million pounds, up 10% versus the prior season. Buying activity was relatively quiet during the month but has picked back up in recent weeks with prices falling to attractive levels. The mid-autumn festival is coming up in the middle of September and will be a good barometer for Chinese demand going forward.

Europe: Europe saw an increase of 21% in shipments for July versus last season but ended the 2022 season down 8% overall. European consumers have struggled all season with inflation, high energy costs, the Ukraine war, and various other challenges that have affected consumer spending throughout the region. This, coupled with higher interest rates and pressure on retailers and manufacturers to draw down post-COVID inventories reduced volume in many categories. Consumer demand for almonds is beginning to see signs of life heading into late summer and fall with some retailers and packers reporting stronger demand in recent weeks. Given that shipping has generally normalized, along with smaller local inventories, we expect stronger 1^st quarter shipments to Europe.

Middle East: July shipments to the Middle East were down 18% versus last year. This was largely expected as the market has been sitting on strong inventories for much of the last quarter of the crop season. For the year, the Middle East finished up 9% and this can be attributed to the lower almond prices being passed on to the end user and directly benefiting the consumer.

Domestic: July shipments were relatively flat year over year for the domestic market, coming in at 56.5 million pounds for the month. As the season ends, the US market trails last year’s shipment performance by 6.6%. Consumption and consumer buying decisions in the US have been impacted by price increases over the last 12 months. Retailers and Consumer Packaged Goods companies have right-sized inventory positions to optimize warehouses due to an increase in interest rates and improvements in just-in-time logistics.

 

COMMITMENTS

Total commitments for the year ended at 373 million pounds, up 7% to last year. Uncommitted inventory improved to 419 million pounds and is down 14% to last year. New sales for the current crop year were respectable at 108.6 million pounds, which is 71.5% higher than last year. A good portion of this was comprised of export sales. California ends the crop year at 87.5% sold and shipped against total supply, compared to 85.9% last season.

Sales for new crop picked up and were 82.5 million pounds for the month. This is up 32% compared to last year with most of this volume (76.5 million pounds) coming from export markets. Overall, market activity continues to lag against last year’s pace with total sales for the 2023 crop year at 204.9 million pounds which is down 31% to last year. Price continues to fall in search of demand. With almond prices at attractive levels, demand should pick up given various markets need to cover demand for the upcoming holiday season.

CROP

With the 2023 crop forecasted at 2.6 billion pounds, the total supply for the upcoming season is essentially unchanged compared to last year. Harvest is finally underway and is approximately two weeks later than last year.

Market Perspective The July position report concludes the 2022 crop year on a positive note by exceeding industry expectations with a higher shipment figure. With that, the industry accomplishes a carryout below 800 million pounds. This provides a step in the right direction to managing the oversupply situation California finds itself in. Almond price softened in the weeks following the Objective Estimate on increased offer from California packers along with quiet demand. Now that the carryover has been set, the supply situation becomes clearer, which should improve price discovery. Global markets remain largely uncovered as we head into the 2023 crop season. This has the potential to provide some much-needed price stability as buyers begin to cover their Q1 needs. Harvest has arrived with growers in the southern regions of the valley starting to shake trees. The outlook for the 2023 crop will become clearer over the coming weeks as receipts are evaluated for quality, size, and supply potential.

To view Blue Diamond’s Market Updates and Bloom Reports Online Click Here

To view the entire detailed Position Report from the Almond Board of California Click Here

 

 

Laura Gerhard
Vice President

OVERVIEW

Shipments for the month of June were 187 million pounds, which is at the low end of industry expectations. This was down 33% to last year’s record month and marks the smallest month of shipments for the crop year. This was expected as buyers and sellers alike have limited their activities in anticipation of the Objective Estimate. Export shipments accounted for the shortfall at 126 million pounds, down 41% to last year. Domestic shipments rebounded from recent months reporting 61 million pounds for the month, up 11% to last month and down 5% to last year. This marks the third consecutive month of declining shipments which are now down 3.5% year-to-date after outpacing last season in recent months.

SHIPMENTS

India: Shipments to the Indian market were 15.5 million pounds for the month, down 61% to last June. Overall, this market is down 10% for the crop year. This is the fourth consecutive month shipments into the market were less than 1,000 containers indicating tight local supply heading into the new crop season. Harvest timing is anticipated to be two weeks later than last year which will spur additional purchases from current crop to meet Diwali demand which will support pricing.

China: June shipments to the region were 11.5 million pounds, up 5% to last year. Year-to-date shipments were 13% ahead of last year’s pace. With inventories sufficient to cover demand through the Mid-Autumn festival in September, China may be slow to come to market following the Objective Estimate.

Europe: Shipments to Europe continued to lag last season coming in at 48 million pounds, down 41% versus last June’s record month. This market is down 10% for the crop season. The lighter shipments in the last quarter were expected as Europe experiences a shift back to more normal shipping patterns. Currency and finance costs continue to bring additional risk to the market in the short term. This is encouraging a draw down in local inventories and limited new sales. As a result, the market will need to replenish and is expected to increase their purchase intent for new crop in the coming weeks.

Middle East: Shipments to the region were 12.8 million pounds, down 62% to last year. This is not entirely surprising given the heavier shipments earlier in the crop year. Year-to-date shipments are now up 11% compared to last season. With the region working through high inventories, shipments continue to ease into the end of the crop year.

Domestic: The US market remains down 7% year-to-date. Consumption continues to be challenged across most channels and categories as continued inflationary pressures and high food prices affect consumer spending habits.

 

COMMITMENTS

Total commitments are currently 451 million pounds, down approximately 1% compared to last year. Uncommitted inventory is now down 4% to last year at 525 million pounds. Market activity for the current crop picked up in June with new sales of 155 million pounds, which is 30% higher than last year. The increased demand largely came from export markets. California is now 84% sold and shipped against total supply, equal to last year through June.

As previously noted, market activity has been rather limited in recent weeks as can be seen in the new crop sales figure of 65 million pounds for the month. This is down 39.5% compared to last year. Year-to-date new crop commitments now sit at 122 million pounds, which is down 48% compared to last year. Given the reduced coverage, new crop activity is expected to pick up in the coming weeks with the release of the Objective Estimate. The increased market activity should provide some much-needed price clarity and stability to the market.

CROP

The much-anticipated USDA Objective Estimate was released on July 12, forecasting 2.6 billion pounds for the 2023 crop. The forecast is based on 1.38 million bearing acres. This is up from the May Subjective Estimate of 2.5 billion pounds. This comes as a surprise to many in the industry who were expecting the Objective Estimate to fall in the 2.4 to 2.5 billion pound range.

With one shipping month remaining in the 2022 crop year, it is likely the carryout comes in under 800 million pounds. This is down from last year’s 837 million pound record carryout. With the updated forecast of 2.6 billion pounds, this puts the projected total supply for the 2023 crop year around 3.4 billion pounds. This would be on par compared to the current crop year.

Market Perspective Shipments continue to ease to close out the 2022-23 crop year. While the industry will finish the year with a lower carryout, it falls short of the expectations many were forecasting a couple months ago. Buyers were opportunistic to add coverage for the current crop period. In the weeks leading up to the Objective Estimate both buyers and sellers had been reserved covering their new crop needs in anticipation of the updated forecast for the 2023 crop to provide more price clarity. Many export markets are not covered into the first quarter of the new crop season. With the release of the Objective Estimate now behind us, price discovery will come into focus as market activity picks up in the coming weeks. A sufficient supply of current crop pollinizers will pressure price while inshell availability remains tight for the balance of the season. As we move forward, the industry will continue to evaluate the 2023 crop in the weeks leading up to harvest.

To view Blue Diamond’s Market Updates and Bloom Reports Online Click Here

To view the entire detailed Position Report from the Almond Board of California Click Here

 

 

Laura Gerhard
Vice President

OVERVIEW

May shipments were 196 million pounds and fell in the upper range of industry expectations. This is 1% lower compared to last month and 24% lower compared to last year’s record for the month of May. Exports, at 141 million pounds, were essentially flat versus last month but down 27% to last year. Domestic shipments were 55 million pounds, down 3% to last month and 14% to last year. Total year-to-date shipments are now flat to last year.

SHIPMENTS

India: Shipments to this market were just under 20 million pounds for the month, down 42% to last May. The market is now down 3% for the crop year. Generally, the market remains uncovered for the balance of the crop season and with the new crop timing estimated to be two weeks later than last year, continued purchasing of the current crop will likely be needed to help support Diwali demand. This should help support California inshell price levels later in the season.

China: Shipments to China and Vietnam continued to ease and were 8.6 million pounds for the month, down 11%. Overall, this market is 14% ahead of last year’s pace. Given healthy destination inventories, this market has been very quiet in recent weeks with little purchasing being done from either California or Australia. Many believe the current stocks are sufficient to cover demand for the Mid-Autumn festival in late September.

Europe: As many expected, shipments to the European market were again softer than a year ago at 57 million pounds for the month, down 24% versus last May. This market is now down 5% for the season. As evidenced by the declining shipments, European demand is being funded by the previously built large inventory positions. There is no incentive to take excess coverage and replenish inventories in the short term with higher finance costs and better logistics. With Fall and 2023 holiday demand largely uncovered, it is likely that Europe will have stronger purchase intent in the next 6–8 weeks as we get closer to the objective estimate, likely setting stage for a more balanced quarterly shipment pattern in the 2023 crop season.

Middle East: As stated in previous reports, the Middle East has been a bright spot all season for California. Demand from the region from origin has slowed as they move through their heavier positions. The market remains up 23% year to date.

Domestic: The US market continues to see year-over-year declines with shipments now down 7% year to date. High food prices continue to impact consumer purchasing decisions and with recessionary pressures expected to continue into the next 12 months, consumer demand is likely to remain challenged.

 

 

COMMITMENTS

Commitments, at 483 million pounds, are down 21% compared to last year. Uncommitted inventory remains 2% higher versus last year at 677 million pounds. Market activity remained steady, albeit limited, last month with new sales at 114 million pounds. This is down 2% to last year. California is now 80% sold and shipped against total supply compared to 81% last year.

The May position report provides the first look at commitments for the 2023 crop year with total commitments reported at 57 million pounds. This is down 55% compared to last year and the lowest reported on record.

CROP

With the 2023 Subjective Estimate at 2.5 billion pounds behind us, the industry now eagerly awaits the Objective Estimate, which is tentatively scheduled to be released on July 7. The industry continues to review the developing crop with many observing a high degree of variability in quality from orchard to orchard. The crop is expected to yield less nonpareil given the unfavorable weather experienced during the bloom. Many anticipate the harvest to be later with crop development two weeks behind last season as a result of the uncharacteristic cooler weather experienced this spring in California.

Market Perspective As expected, shipments continue to ease into the final months of the crop year. Despite the lower new crop projection, the market is reacting to the short-term inputs which is pressuring prices back to lower levels last seen prior to the almond bloom. This has done little to promote activity with buyers around the world who are largely covered for the balance of this crop year and continue to wait for more clarity before stepping in to purchase additional needs. California continues to search for opportunities to sell and ship the current crop and position itself for fall demand when many key markets will need to replenish inventories. The industry will continue to focus on the progression of the 2023 crop as well as the NASS Objective Estimate in July to provide more direction to the current market environment.

To view Blue Diamond’s Market Updates and Bloom Reports Online Click Here

To view the entire detailed Position Report from the Almond Board of California Click Here

 

 

Laura Gerhard
Vice President

OVERVIEW

January shipments exceeded industry expectations and set a new record for the month at 229 million pounds which is 11.3% higher than last month’s performance and 29.6% higher than a year ago. This is the third straight month of shipment growth and positions the industry ahead of last year’s pace by 2.6% after six months, a welcomed sign to an industry trying to drive down the carryout. Export volume improved to 163 million pounds which is 6% higher versus last month and 47% higher versus last year. Domestic shipments rebounded to 66.5 million pounds which is 27% higher than last month and flat to last year.

SHIPMENTS

India: A third consecutive month of strong shipments continued closing the gap to last year’s levels. January shipments were 34.7 million pounds and up 52% to last year. Year-to-date shipments to India now stand at 189.8 million pounds, only 2% behind the same time last year. With improved logistics and shipping from California, a more regular cadence is anticipated moving forward. With Diwali sales now in the rearview strong demand is expected to continue with the wedding season and growth in non-traditional buying regions. Additionally, sales for the Indian market will be top of mind with the upcoming Gulfood show in February.

China: Following an underwhelming December, January shipments to China were 5.8 million pounds which is 90% higher to last year. Year-to-date shipments are now 20% behind last year’s pace, a 4% improvement from the prior month. This market has been very active now that the government lifted COVID restrictions and opened its border as evidenced by good consumption reported over the Chinese New Year holiday. Australian shipments to China have started to pick up and will play a factor in the market over the coming months with harvest beginning. Purchasing is expected to remain strong into February and March as buyers look to replenish inventories that were at conservative levels during the COVID period.

Europe: Shipments to the European market were up 59% for the month compared to last year led by strong shipments to Spain, up 78%.  Processors and traders throughout the region continued to take advantage of low-cost standards and SSR in lieu of a smaller Spanish crop. Reports from retailers regarding demand during the holiday season were mixed with many expecting supplies to last longer into 2023. The market had very strong sales activity during January, assisted by a stronger Euro, as the European trade and processor community continued to cover demand for 2nd and 3rd quarter shipments at historic low levels.

 Middle East: Shipments to the Middle East remained strong, up 89% to last year and 45% year to date. Market activity in January and early February helped to bolster nonpareil prices in the past few weeks. As prices continue to be attractive to buyers and consumers throughout the region, demand is likely to continue into the 1st quarter of 2023.

Domestic: The domestic market rebounded from two months of year-over-year declines and recorded strong shipments for the month of 66.5 million pounds which is flat to last year. The region remains down 7.2% to last year for a total of 28.4 million pounds. January also recorded the second-highest month of new bookings this crop year at 85 million pounds which put the domestic market 6.5 million pounds ahead of last year. The uptick in shipments and new sales is a positive sign for this market.

 

COMMITMENTS

January commitments improved to 840 million pounds and are now flat to last year. New sales for the month set an all-time record for January at 350 million pounds which is up 68.6% to last year. This is the second-largest new sales figure in history.  With strong sales activity in January and into February, uncommitted inventory stands at a more favorable 1.15 million pounds, down 11.4% to last year. Sold and shipped as a percent of the total supply (assuming a 2.55 billion crop) is 63.3% compared to 59.9% last year.

CROP

The 2022 crop is now approximately 95% received with receipts totaling 2.475 billion pounds. This is down 12.5% to last year with many in the industry now projecting a crop production under 2.6 billion pounds. Nonpareil receipts are down 12% to last year. The Independence variety, while up 1% to last year, is underperforming against early expectations for its production potential.

Market Perspective January shipments came in above industry expectations for the second month in a row with a strong showing for both export and domestic shipments.  Through the first half of the crop year shipments to Europe, the Middle East, and Northern Africa, out pace last season and have propelled year-to-date export shipments up 7.2% versus a year earlier. Affordable prices and an improved macro-economic environment spurred demand as evidenced by a strong month of new sales putting the industry ahead of last year’s pace. Purchasing looks to remain strong into February. With sales now on pace (slightly ahead) to last season, look for pricing to stabilize in the short term at higher levels than the lows seen for much of January. The industry will continue to focus on demand opportunities in its efforts to drive down the carryout. The industry is now expecting a 2022 crop closer to 2.55 billion pounds. With the crop now 95% received all eyes now turn to the 2023 almond bloom in February. Come visit our stand at Gulfood 2023 in Dubai – Sheik Saeed Hall 3 Stand S3-E33 – February 20 – 25.

To view Blue Diamond’s Market Updates and Bloom Reports Online Click Here

To view the entire detailed Position Report from the Almond Board of California Click Here